The Paul Graham growth test

Are you on a billion-dollar growth curve?

Paul Graham says a startup comes down to two numbers: your growth rate and how long it lasts. Answer a few questions and we measure both, honestly, against his 15%-a-month bar.

1

Connect your LLM Gateway

Bring your own key. We run the analysis on your model of choice.

Don't have one? Sign up free at llmgateway.io.

2

Answer a few questions about your business

The only required input is your monthly revenue. Everything else sharpens the read.

The framework

Two numbers, per Paul Graham

In his talk How to Earn a Billion Dollars, Paul Graham argues a startup's outcome comes down to just two numbers: its growth rate, and how long that growth lasts. At 15% a month, revenue multiplies about 4,384x over five years, enough to make a typical founder a billionaire. Neither number requires cheating.

Number 1: Growth rate

You get it by making something users love so much they tell their friends. We measure your compound monthly rate and grade it against the 15% bar.

Number 2: Duration

You get it by being in a big market. Market size sets how long growth can compound. Cheating cannot manufacture either number.

What you get

A real growth verdict

  • Your compound monthly growth rate, across the full window and the trailing 3 and 6 months
  • A 0-100 growth-health score and letter grade, anchored to PG's 15%/month bar
  • Projections of where each growth rate lands you in 1, 2, and 3 years
  • Your time to a $1B revenue run-rate vs the 15%/month path
  • Your phases read off the actual revenue series: ignition, scaling, plateau
  • Copy-paste prompts for the specific growth moves that re-accelerate the curve